Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index Signals Trend for Employees Staying In Their Jobs Will Continue Over Next Six Months

The latest Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index continues an upward trend, rising by 0.4 points to 102.9, signaling that workers likely will remain in their jobs over the next six months. Importantly, the Retention Index measures a sharp decline in employees’ perceptions of the external job market. The Market Opportunity Indicator dropped by 4.4 points, the steepest decline since the Index’s inception in 2023 and now sitting at its lowest recorded level.

This Market Opportunity decline reflects a growing sense of pessimism that employees hold about employment opportunities outside of their current organizations. Across the four indicators — Culture, Compensation, Organizational Confidence, and Job Market Opportunity — market sentiment not only experienced the greatest loss, but now is the lowest-ranking sentiment influencing employees’ intent to stay or leave their current roles.

These results follow the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report. While the report found that hiring has remained solid in June, economists and analysts were cautious about growth and jobs going forward. For example, the BLS data found private sector job growth fell to the lowest level since October 2024 and nearly half of the of the 147,000 total new jobs added in June were in state and local government. The BLS data also found more than half of private industries cut jobs in June, marking only the third time this has happened since April 2020. Additionally, the most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey found 5.5 million hires were made during May, down from the 5.61 million in April.

“Eagle Hill’s Job Market Opportunity Indicator plunge is more than just a data point: it marks the first time this indicator has declined for two consecutive periods, now at its lowest point since we launched the Index,” said Melissa Jezior, president and chief executive officer of Eagle Hill Consulting. “This significant drop is echoed across almost every demographic, with Baby Boomers experiencing the most significant fall, followed by men.”

“This convergence highlights that worker confidence in job opportunities is dwindling for nearly all U.S. workers as uncertainty looms around the broader economic outlook and job threats like AI and automation. Organizations, however, can leverage this drop in market confidence as a window of opportunity. While employees may feel less inclined to leave their current roles, they may also be more open to new roles or training,” Jezior said.

Gen Z: Stabilizers Signal Potential Attrition Risk

When looking across generations, The Employee Retention Index signals Gen Z workers are most likely to stay in their current roles in the coming six months. For the second consecutive period, Gen Z has stronger confidence in their organizations’ futures and are more satisfied with the compensation elements of their jobs relative to other generations. However, they are not necessarily more engaged. The Gen Z Retention Index declined more significantly than their older peers, and their positive sentiment decreased across all four indicators. Their Organizational Confidence Indicator declined more than double that of any other generation, by 10.4 points.

The Eagle Hill Employee Retention Index is a first-of-a-kind market indicator that tracks worker sentiment across four proven drivers of retention: organizational confidence, culture, compensation, and job market opportunity. The data for across the four drivers for the first quarter of 2025 is as follows:

The Organizational Confidence Indicator measures how confident employees are in their organization’s future and leadership. This indicator decreased 1.1 points to 101.5. Gen Z and men feel the most confident in their organization while Gen X feel the least confident.

The Culture Indicator looks at employee sentiment about their workplace culture, connections, and whether they feel valued and recognized. This measure decreased 0.7 points to 100.7 and continues to be the weakest indicator of the three internal-focused indicators. Women and Gen Z express the least satisfaction with their workplace culture.

The Compensation Indicator measures how employees view their compensation, benefits, and ability to grow their compensation at their organization. This indicator increased 1.1 points to 103.4. This was the only gain across the four indicators. Gen Z holds the strongest positive sentiment, while Baby Boomers hold the weakest after falling 22.4 points since this time last year.

The Job Market Opportunity Indicator measures how employees perceive external prospects for employment and job security in the near term. This indicator dropped by 4.4 points, the steepest decline since the Index’s inception. It now sits at its lowest recorded level, meaning workers currently feel the least optimistic about the job market and their external opportunities that they have in over two years.

Read more about the Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index findings.

Understanding employee sentiment at a deep level has evolved into a competitive asset. With this new proprietary market indicator, employers have forward-looking insights to help proactively implement strategies to manage their workforce. While the Eagle Hill Employee Index isn’t a one-size-fits all for employers, organizations can use it to benchmark their organization and pinpoint their strengths and weakness. In doing so, employers can assess and make changes to ensure their workforce is motivated, engaged, and aligned with the organizational mission.

Each month, the Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index measure shifts in workforce retention based upon ongoing employee opinion surveys on factors related to worker intentions to change jobs. As the Employee Retention Index increases, it signals an increase in retention in the next six months. As the Employee Retention Index decreases, it signals to employers that workers are more likely to leave their jobs, and organizations can expect more turnover in the next six months.

Results are released on a quarterly basis, including an annual summary report. Conducted by Ipsos, the Eagle Hill Employee Retention Index is a nationally representative sample of adults ages 18 and older who are employed full-time or part-time on a range of workforce topics. Survey data is collected on a monthly basis, which commenced in December 2022. The most recent data was collected from April-June 2025.

Eagle Hill Consulting LLC is an award-winning business that provides unconventional management consulting services in the areas of Organizational Performance, Business Intelligence, Technology Enablement, Talent, and Change Management. The company’s expertise in delivering innovative solutions to unique challenges spans across Fortune 500 companies, government agencies, and global nonprofits. Eagle Hill has offices in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area, Boston, MA, and Seattle, WA.