Randstad RiseSmart Labor Market Barometer Provides Comprehensive Insight into US Labor Market Recovery

Leading outplacement and career mobility supplier Randstad RiseSmart announced the launch of the Randstad RiseSmart labor market barometer, which aggregates 10 key labor market indicators using statistical computations into one, monthly figure. The ensuing value represents the pulse of the U.S. labor market.

Leveraging the most recent labor market information, the April 2021 barometer figure raised 17.5 points to 106.2 from the pandemic low of 88.7 in April 2020, indicating clear signs of improvement one year after the COVID-19 pandemic initial significantly impacted the labor market. For perspective, the barometer has a baseline figure of one hundred, marked by the initial pandemic outbreak in March 2020.

“We’re continuously keeping a pulse on the labor market and economic conditions so that we can give our customers and participants in career transition with strategic guidance grounded in real-time information and domain experience. Our labor market barometer provides a unique, in-depth look at this state of the labor market and offers elaborated insight into the road to recovery within the U.S.,” said Dan Davenport, CEO at Randstad RiseSmart. “Continued labor market improvement is highly dependent on the ability to induce millions of Americans back to work, particularly by boosting labor participation rates in industries that are heavily wedged throughout this crisis like leisure, retail, and hospitality.”

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RiseSmart uses a principal component analysis (PCA)-based statistical model to see the monthly barometer figure. The 10 labor market indicators aggregated into this barometer give a comprehensive view of unemployment rolls and claims, layoffs, predictive workforce reductions, and hiring activity. They include:

1. Unemployment level: a variety of individuals who are not employed, who are available for work, and people who created specific efforts to find employment during a four-week period or are temporarily laid off.
2. Unemployment rate: a variety of unemployed folks as a percentage of the labor force.
3. Temporary help services: a variety of workers in the temporary help services industry.
4. Initial claims 4-WMA: a variety of new jobless claims filed by people seeking to receive unemployment advantages.
5. ASA staffing index: weekly changes in temporary and contract employees and serves as an indicator of current economic conditions.
6. Employment diffusion index: percentage of industries that have increased their payrolls within the last month (greater than 50 % shows industries increased their workforce; less than 50 % shows industries reduced their workforce).
7. Layoffs and discharges: a variety of involuntary separations initiated by employers (layoffs with no intent to rehire, discharges due to eliminated positions).
8. ISM Index percentage reporting lower volumes in services: shows if corporations within the services sector commit to decreasing their workforce.
9. ISM Index percentage reporting lower volumes in manufacturing: shows if corporations within the services sector commit to decreasing their workforce.
10. Google searches (unemployment topic): show search trends on Google (in this case, unemployment-related searches).

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The April 2021 figure closely aligns with the findings of RiseSmart’s quarterly “Career mobility Outlook” report, which found that eighty-seven percent of employers decide to hire in the next 3 months a positive sign of labor market recovery. The survey, which was conducted to achieve additional insight from HR professionals and individual workers about the state of the labor market and economy, additionally found that employers (51 percent) are additional optimistic about the overall U.S. economic outlook than workers (24 percent).

While the labor market is trending up, workers are still hesitant to make job changes, with solely 23 % of those surveyed indicating they’re likely to move to a different job internally and 17 % indicating the same about external job opportunities. There also looks to be a disconnect between employers and workers once it comes to their outlook on internal mobility opportunities within the coming months. Specifically, the survey found that:

• 52 % of workers have a positive outlook on their current manager’s openness to internal mobility opportunities, whereas employers appear to be more optimistic about this matter (73 percent)
• 51 % of workers surveyed have a positive outlook on the availableness of internal mobility opportunities at their current organization, whereas employers are slightly more positive (62 percent)

“Even as the U.S. is putting economic recovery plans into place and accelerating vaccine distribution, the uncertainty around the COVID-19 crisis continues to possess a control on the American workforce,” said Davenport. “As the labor market improves, workers will not hesitate to look elsewhere for work if they do not see growth opportunities at their current organization. By making a culture that prioritizes internal mobility opportunities, not solely will organizations drive retention and business agility, but they’ll additionally support individuals’ long-term employability as the world of work continues to evolve. Providing career mobility to all workers is both a critical need and a chance that organizations should seize upon to promote workforce sustainability.”

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