Navigating uncertainty requires an intentional approach
Workforce dynamics often rise and fall with macroeconomic trends, so HR and talent leaders
are keeping a close eye on the latest forecasts. Yet lately, those predictions have missed the
mark. During the early days of Covid, some experts warned of an unemployment crisis rivaling
the Great Depression — a scenario that, thankfully, didn’t materialize. When inflation soared
post-pandemic, other models pointed to a prolonged period of “stagflation,” with increasing
prices, yet hiring freezes and stagnant wages — a forecast that has, so far, proven overly dire.
As we navigate these uncertain times, one thing is clear: workforce trends are increasingly
defying conventional wisdom.
One thing is for certain: Economic pressures and strained L&D budgets, the continued spread of
AI, and the still-unknown impact of the 2024 election will create more instability and
unpredictability. Yet there are three critical trends that are set to define the year ahead, each
posing essential questions for leaders. Those who proactively develop strategies to navigate
these trends will gain a competitive edge through the year and even the decade.
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1. Organizations will confront ‘reluctant retention’.
As tight labor market conditions persist in many sectors, we will see a trend of “reluctant
retention”: Employees will stay in jobs and in organizations they’re dissatisfied with only
because they have limited options on the labor market. This has major consequences for
productivity and morale, as disengaged employees will likely maintain only a minimal level of
performance. According to recent Glassdoor research, almost two-thirds of professionals feel
stuck in their careers. For tech workers, that number is almost 75%.
To confront reluctant retention, companies must engage their workforce more thoughtfully than
in recent years, even when their retention rates appear to be strong. That means creating more
fulfilling, growth-oriented environments.
Actionable Strategies:
● Foster career progression through structured upskilling programs — according to Guild
data, employers see an average of $3 savings for every $1 invested in education and
upskilling through Guild
● Embed employee-listening tools to measure satisfaction and engagement levels
2. The need for skills ‘scaffolding’ will become more dire.
For years, employers have labored under the notion that equipping employees with new skills is
a panacea to workforce transformation. Not true. Skills are important, sure, but to truly empower
employees, organizations must foster environments where employees feel safe to take risks, try
new things, and grow. When people have that kind of trust and support, they’re more likely to
take the kind of risks that lead to growth and innovation.
In an era of reluctant retention, we have to recognize that skills themselves are only a part of
what’s needed. Additional “scaffolding” — including social capital, targeted benefits, coaching
and mentorship, support from management, and psychological safety for marginalized groups
— is the real factor for success.
At Guild, we have seen positive outcomes when learners have scaffolding in the form of
coaching, for example. Almost three-quarters of learners we’ve surveyed who take advantage of
coaching say their coaches contribute to their academic success. And we’ve seen better
advancement outcomes — specifically, a 32% higher academic advancement rate from a Guild
foundational program (such as high school and college prep) for coached graduates compared
with self-serve graduates.
Actionable Strategies:
● Build internal learning networks that pair employees with peers and mentors
● Focus on providing marginalized groups with additional scaffolding, such as access to
coaching or financial literacy programs
3. No, DEI isn’t dead. It’ll evolve as a competitive equalizer.
In today’s political landscape, organizations across industries are altering their approach to
diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI). Some companies are removing requirements and opening
up specific DEI programs to everyone. Others are pursuing DEI goals — but are clearly
articulating the business outcomes and measurable results achieved through these efforts.
Others are jettisoning DEI teams as part of cost-cutting efforts. And across the country, many
lawmakers are aiming to restrict or regulate DEI initiatives.
Much of this backlash stems from a misunderstanding of equity and untrue rhetoric. Too often,
DEI is framed as an outcome in and of itself (for example, a specific diversity ratio). Rather, it
should be treated as a critical input — think a trampoline that everyone can jump from. When
equity is treated as an input, it’s about affording people the opportunity to succeed on their own
merits.
“It’s about equitable outcomes for everyone,” according to Jessica Brazier, VP and Chief
Diversity & Inclusion Officer at AdventHealth. “We want inclusivity to be a term everyone can
see themselves in.” At AdventHealth, focusing on DEI means soliciting employee feedback to
see if the organization is delivering on its mission. Through extensive surveys and focus groups,
the health system landed on six employee promises. One of those promises is “lighted career
paths” to promote internal growth. Understanding that it’s sometimes easier to see career
options outside your organization, AdventHealth leaders set out to reverse that trend and enable
all employees to see a future for themselves at the organization.
The reality is that U.S. demographics are diversifying. As workforce shortages continue,
particularly in healthcare and manufacturing, organizations will need to expand into new talent
pools, and that means developing talent from underrepresented groups. If organizations aren’t
investing in these communities now, they may miss out on an opportunity to gain a competitive
edge, particularly when it comes to AI. Consider that more than half of workers who complete
Guild Learning Marketplace programs are people of color (above the U.S. workforce benchmark
of 42%).
When organizations focus on career mobility programs designed for their entire workforce, they
build more diverse teams at every level — helping employees advance their careers and move
into higher paying jobs while improving patient care in the process.
Actionable Strategies:
● Align DEI initiatives with business outcomes, such as diversifying talent pipelines for
high-demand roles
● Invest in equity as a foundation for growth by expanding access to skills and career
advancement opportunities
● Leverage data to demonstrate how diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives benefit all
employees
The certainty that comes with navigating uncertainty
The challenges of reluctant retention, the evolving role of skills scaffolding, and the
transformation of DEI are not merely trends but opportunities to reshape the future of work.
Organizations that embrace these trends with intention will do more than navigate uncertainty —
they’ll lead it.
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