Examining the Monthly BLS Employment Report

The most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports on “The Employment Situation,”  the bureau’s title for the monthly employment report, are listed below.

Each report covers the previous month’s statistics (for example, September’s report covers August figures), and numbers are routinely modified in subsequent editions. Unadjusted figures are highlighted in the text.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, total nonfarm payroll increased by 517,000 jobs in January, blowing expert estimates out of the water. The unemployment rate has fallen to 3.4%.

 

Wage growth has slowed, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s continuous attempts to keep inflation under control. According to Nick Bunker, head of economic analysis at Indeed Hiring Lab, the January report might indicate that the predicted recession would not hit as severely as projected – if at all.

While recent layoffs at major organizations have made news, the losses are being promptly absorbed, according to Patrick McAdams, CEO of Andiamo, a tech recruiting agency,“While big tech layoffs are making big headlines, our data shows that they aren’t yet having a big effect on the overall job market. [Forty-five percent] of laid-off tech workers are landing new jobs in under 30 days and 81% are landing new jobs in 90 days.”

Workforce participation, according to numerous experts, remains a challenge. “Unfortunately, even with 11 million job openings, too many workers are on the sidelines and not taking advantage of current labor market demand,” American Staffing Association president and CEO Richard Wahlquist said in a statement.

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Indeed’s economic research director Nick Bunker believes the December job data may point to a “soft landing” for the economy in 2023, after recession worries. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total nonfarm payroll increased by 223,000 jobs, lowering the unemployment rate to 3.5%.

Notably, wage growth slowed in the second half of the year, indicating that the Federal Reserve is working to keep inflation low. “Slowing but still robust wage gains indicate that the labor market is cooling in a sustainable manner,” Bunker said.

Nevertheless, two indications in the survey might indicate additional deterioration in labor circumstances, according to ZipRecruiter Chief Economist Julia Pollak in a statement. Temporary assistance employment has fallen, as have typical weekly working hours.

“That could suggest that demand for labor is cooling, and that job growth will be slower in the coming months,” Pollak said. “Temp help employment and working hours are typically leading indicators, whereas other labor market measures are lagging indicators.”

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Amidst recession worries driving significant layoffs in the technology and media industries, as well as hiring freezes at related firms, the employment market remains healthy, according to statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In November 2022, nonfarm employment climbed by 263,000, while unemployment stayed at 3.7%.

Leisure and hospitality, healthcare, and government all had “notable” job growth. Meanwhile, employment in retail, transportation, and warehousing has decreased. Overall, experts reported lower labor-force participation, but job opportunities remained strong, with more than 10 million available positions. According to American Staffing Association CEO and President Richard Wahlquist, this report’s insight confirms what recruiters have personally witnessed about corporate labor shortage concerns.

“Although large firm layoffs make headlines, employers across many sectors are still struggling to fill open positions and are really focusing on employee engagement and retention — holding on to the workers they have,” Wahlquist said.

Nicola Hancock, managing director of recruiting company AMS, also believes that firms are having difficulty finding competent employees. Organizations across all industries have voiced they will continue to invest in tech; they can’t afford to. “Companies need digital talent to stay competitive,” Hancock said in a press release. “This means right now they are holding on to their tech workers, hiring workers who may have been laid off, and reskilling current employees in other areas of the business.”

The total nonfarm payroll increased by 261,000 in October, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, despite an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.7%.

While the data does not necessarily suggest a weakening economy, it may reveal some fractures, according to Nick Bunker, head of economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab.

“The household survey was the more concerning of the two data sources this month.” “Clearly, the rise in the unemployment rate was concerning, but the stark dropoff in the prime-age employment-to-population ratio should raise our concern level,” he said.

The status of the economy — and prolonged recession worries — may put significant pressure on talent executives to make a choice about growth in 2023. “This dichotomy is putting employers and recruiters in a tough position,” Robert Boersma, VP of Operations, North America, for Talent.com, said in a statement. “Do they continue hiring to make up for the labor shortages of the past couple of years or put it off due to fears of a looming recession in the first half of next year?” But as interest rates rise, job availability will also likely lessen, Boersma said.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, total nonfarm payroll increased by 263,000 in September, while the unemployment rate dipped slightly to 3.5%, indicating a jobs market that is softening but still mostly steady, experts told HR Dive.

While there are indicators that it is becoming more difficult for jobless persons to obtain jobs,“the widely-feared spike in layoffs has yet to arrive,” Nick Bunker, head of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said in a statement; “There might be some turbulence ahead, but the labor market continues to cruise.”

Companies across the board added employment, but the economy is beginning to “become a story of two job markets,” according to Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. Some areas, such as healthcare, food services, and entertainment, have had enormous employment growth, while others, such as finance, construction, and advertising, have seen declines as a result of high interest rates and a strong dollar, she added.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, total nonfarm payroll increased 315,000 in August. The unemployment rate jumped to 3.7%, but this was due to “more people joining the labor force and seeking for work,” according to AnnElizabeth Konkel, senior economist at Indeed Hiring Lab.

“Today’s report answers the persistent recession question, at least for today: we are not in a recession,” Konkel continued. “The US labor market remains strong with employers adding jobs and labor supply coming back online.”

Companies may be “nervous” to carry out significant layoffs similar to those saw in 2008, according to Nicola Hancock, managing director Of Americas region, AMS. As things stand, companies may be unwilling to take on the risk of laying off big portions of their employees. “That abrupt approach has been hard to recover from, and we’re now seeing much longer-term strategies in firms’ workforce planning to avoid the talent shortage and accompanying high costs as they rebuild their employment base,” Hancock said.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, total nonfarm payroll increased by 528,000 in July, officially restoring the US economy to pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate has fallen to 3.5%.

Despite fears about a future recession and frequent tales of layoffs, this data shows that firms are still “hiring in droves,” according to Nick Bunker, head of economic analysis at Indeed Hiring Lab.

“Underestimate the US labor market at your own peril,” Bunker said. “Yes, output growth might be slowing, and the economic outlook has some clouds on the horizon.” But employers are still champing at the bit to hire more workers. That demand may fade, but it’s still red hot right now.”

However, the workforce participation rate remains below its February 2020 level. According to the US Chamber of Commerce, women left the workforce in droves, and many have not returned.

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