U.S. Economic Recovery Quiets as July 4 Holiday Causes Dip in Shift Work
Following Waning June Recovery, Kronos U.S. Workforce Activity Report Reveals Rocky Shift Growth, Hiring in Early July
National Overview:
In alignment with the national July 4 holiday observance, total volume of shifts worked1 decreased by 11.4% from June 29-July 5, mirroring – and, in fact, falling short of – the decline in shifts that occurred the week of July 4, 2019 (-26.9%). According to the latest U.S. Workforce Activity Report from Kronos Incorporated, prior to the July 4 holiday, U.S. businesses had grown shifts by 32% since shift work hit “the bottom” the week ending April 12. Overall, shift volume remains down 24.3% since the week ending March 15 – the last week of “normal” shift work activity before the U.S. declared a national emergency.
Job Growth:
The delta between employee terminations2, which includes both voluntary and involuntary turnover, and new employee hiring3 widened during the week ending July 5. Prior to COVID-19, this ratio stood at nearly 1 termination for every 1 new hire; yet it currently stands at 2.8-to-1, the nation’s largest delta since the 3.2-1 ratio that occurred when employee shifts hit “the bottom” the week ending April 12.
State Snapshot:
For the first time since Memorial Day, all 50 states saw a decline in shift work due to the July 4 holiday. Across the U.S., 16 states experienced or surpassed an average of 100 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents per week4, with 11 of these states seeing double-digit declines in shift work from June 29-July 5: Alabama (-14.0%); Arkansas (-10.6%); Georgia (-14.9%); Idaho (-11.2%); Iowa (-10.6%); Louisiana (-12.5%); Mississippi (-17.3%); North Carolina (-15.4%); South Carolina (-17.6%); Tennessee (-17.2%); and Utah (-12.9%). The Midwest5 (-13.8%) and Southeast6 (-12.6%) saw nearly double the week-over-week shift decline compared to the Northeast7 (-7.7%) and West8 (-8.4%).
Industry Analysis:
Five industries central to the U.S. economy were impacted to varying degrees by the July 4 holiday. Manufacturing saw the largest week-over-week decrease (-19.6%), while retail, hospitality, and food service, bolstered by holiday demand, held mostly flat (-1.7% week over week). Public sector, well into its anticipated slower summer season, declined 12.4% week over week. Services and distribution (-8.4%) and healthcare (-7.2%) saw modest holiday-related declines. Despite this dip, across all industries, shifts declined less during the 2020 July 4 holiday week than during the week of July 4, 2019.
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Commentary:
Dave Gilbertson, vice president, HCM practice group, Kronos
“Over the past six weeks, we have seen the national economic outlook begin to temper: The upward trendline of shifts, peppered with holiday-related declines correlating with Memorial Day and July 4, has slowed; the delta between terminations and hirings continues to swell; and industries continue to recover shifts at varying paces based on state reopenings, restrictions on travelers, and inconsistent consumer demand. While last week’s July 4-related shift decrease was not as large as expected based on historical data, we can’t yet come to any conclusions based on a single week – especially since the holiday fell on a weekend, which may impact vacation for a second week. Data over the next several weeks should indicate whether the relative strength of recovery is enough to reverse slowing shift growth amid nationwide COVID-19 case spikes.”
Timeliness:
The Kronos U.S. Workforce Activity Report provides near real-time insights into workplace activity for the immediate preceding week. The report is currently analyzed and released weekly and inclusive of data through July 5. Historical reports, beginning the week of April 13, 2020 are available at Kronos.com/USWorkforceActivity.
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