Turn’s AI-driven platform analyzes, predicts and forecasts the future of the job economy, giving businesses a critical edge. Turn’s platform tracks 94% of working Americans and employment data from 1.1 million companies spread across more than 36,000 locations in the U.S. Plus, daily analysis of all recruitment activities by more than 525,000 job advertisers.

Turn AI answers critical planning questions such as:

  • What will happen to the job economy in the next 60 days?
  • Where to expect growth and where to spot the shrinkages?
  • How much hourly workers can expect to make?
  • How to stay ahead of the trends?

“As the U.S. transitions from a closed pandemic job economy back to normal, increasing inflation drives demand for hourly employees. Turn’s platform, which enables autonomous hiring at scale, can help high volume employers improve the talent quality of their candidates while lowering hiring costs,” said Rahier Rahman, founder and CEO of Turn.

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Predicted Job Economy for June and July of 2022 Turn predicts that by July 2022, the U.S. unemployment rate will fall to a seasonal low of 3.5% due to a 64.7% increase in June 2022 hiring. The downward trajectory should continue through the end of July.

Turn discovered the spike in June’s growth – outside of expected seasonal trends – may be explained by the following factors:

  • A significant shift away from hourly, pandemic related jobs such as warehouse positions, that dropped a median 24% in June 2022. At the same time, traditional economic roles such as retail workers and janitorial services, increased a median 210%.
  • An increase of semi-skilled hourly and salaried jobs, such as mechanics and nurses. For the past 12 months, semi-skilled jobs have accounted for a median of 11.5% of monthly jobs. In June, semi-skilled jobs rose to 19.9% of all jobs. Turn predicts an increase to 22% of all jobs in July.

Turn’s data identified 511 companies that are primarily responsible for fueling semi-skilled hourly and salaried jobs growth, each contributing a median of 3,300 jobs to the economy.
A few blue chip companies that will grow through the end of July include:

  • Amazon: 261% job growth across 7,800 locations
  • Driveline Retail Solutions: 269% job growth across 3,900 locations
  • Walgreens: 20% job growth across 5,300 locations
  • Great Clips: 12% job growth across 6,500 locations
  • Dollar General: 51% job growth across 4,300 locations

Turn predicts semi-skilled, hourly and salaried jobs growth will primarily occur in 2,377 incorporated cities, towns and villages across the United States.

In terms of national distribution, Turn predicts Month-over-Month growth will be strongest in the following five cities/Metro areas in June and July 2022:

  • New York, NY: 18.8% job growth across 29,300 companies
  • Sacramento, CA: 16.3% job growth across 3,900 companies
  • Seattle, WA: 14.4% job growth across 8,100 companies
  • San Diego, CA: 11.8% job growth across 7,500 companies
  • Arlington, TX: 11.3% job growth across 4,800 companies

Trend Analysis: Shift from Closed Pandemic Jobs to Full Open Historically, when companies face economic struggles, they first cut hourly before salaried workers. Given the high inflation Americans are confronting, trends indicate a historical relapse in that practice. As the U.S. transitions from a closed pandemic job economy back to normal, increasing inflation drives demand for hourly employees.

Meanwhile, all other industries shrank by 1.3%. Hirings for jobs that were in high demand during the pandemic, such as in warehousing, reduced by 24% month over month in June.

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Trend Analysis: Shift to Semi-Skilled Jobs

There was a major shift to semi-skilled labor in the month of June 2022 where both hiring and job growth increased 171%. The greatest growth positions were nurses, pharmacy technicians, mechanics and Class A truck drivers. Turn predicts the upward trend of hiring semi-skilled workers will continue through July 2022.

Turn’s predicted trend, of a continued shift to semi-skilled jobs, is supported by Tesla’s latest decision to lay off 3.5% of its workforce. The company announced it will reduce its salaried workforce by 10% while increasing its hourly employees headcount to offset the layoffs.

Turn’s Predicted Wages: June / July, 2022

Turn’s AI, based on 11.8 million salary data points, confirms a nationwide wage increase of 15.5% over the past 12 months. Turn predicts a further increase of 7.5% for the balance of 2022 based on the following intelligence:

  • Job hopping amongst hourly and semi-skilled job holders. On average, a job that was filled in June 2022 was typically reopened within 9.5 days due to attrition.
  • A shortage of hourly and semi-skilled workers is forcing companies to spend more to fill and retain their open positions. For example, there was a 34% increase in job related advertisements for nurses in June 2022 but took 52% longer to fill.
  • A 40-year high US inflation rate of 8.6%. Cost increases in basic necessities (a gallon of gas increased by 15% between May 9 and June 6 2022), is forcing companies to increase wages to fill and retain jobs.

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