U.S. Shift Work Growth Curve Flattens, Breaking Three Month Streak of Gains
Kronos Incorporated:
This week’s @KronosInc #WorkforceActivityReport for July 6-12 shows total U.S. shift work decreased for the first time in a non-holiday week in nearly three months.
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Following nearly three months of steady, consistent shift work1 growth, the U.S. economic recovery from COVID-19 experienced a significant setback last week, according to the U.S. Workforce Activity Report from Kronos Incorporated. Based on data from 3.2 million employees, the largest and most comprehensive near real-time sample of workplace activity, the total volume of shifts worked from July 6-12 declined 0.5%. While modest, this marks the first non-holiday week to experience contracting shift work activity since the recovery began in earnest the week ending April 12. While it may be a carry-over from last week’s expected decline related to the July 4th holiday, it also correlates with the rise in new COVID-19 cases that has prompted 22 states to either pause or reverse their reopening plans. Businesses have recovered just 58% of shifts lost in the initial weeks of the pandemic.
State Snapshot:
While shift work increased in Northeast2 states such as Connecticut (6.7%), Massachusetts (2.4%), and New Jersey (4.9%) between June 22 and July 12, many Southeast3 states experienced the opposite trend, as Florida (-1.7%), Georgia (-4.8%), Louisiana (-0.3%), and South Carolina (-4%) watched shift work decrease during the same period. Shift work in Arizona increased 1.4% in that window despite increasing COVID-19 cases, while the recovery appears to be stalling in California (-1%), Nevada (-0.4%), and Texas (-1.1%).
Job Growth:
Employee terminations4, including voluntary and involuntary turnover, and job creation as measured by new employee hiring5 sits at a ratio of 2.4:1, as U.S. businesses continue to shed headcount faster than they are hiring. By comparison, in February 2020, this ratio stood at nearly 1 termination for every 1 new hire. It then peaked at 3.4:1 the week ending March 29, just one week after the Dow Jones Industrial Average bottomed out under 19,000.
Industry Analysis:
The U.S. Workforce Activity Report tracks five industries central to the U.S. economy, each of which are still fighting to return to pre-pandemic workplace activity, including healthcare (down 9%). Despite initially being impacted to differing degrees, retail, food service, and hospitality, the services sector, and manufacturing have converged to each stand approximately 15% below pre-pandemic shift volume. Public Sector, which often slows during the summer months in part due to education, has recovered 53% of the shifts lost during the pandemic but remains down by nearly a third (32%) overall.
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Commentary:
Dave Gilbertson, vice president, HCM practice group, Kronos
“The U.S. is flattening the curve – but it’s the wrong curve. COVID-19 cases are rising in many states, prompting reopening plans to be paused and even rolled back, leading to what may be the first signs of a plateau in workplace activity growth. Following the decelerating shift growth witnessed in June, the next several weeks will be vital to understanding whether this step back is an extension of the July 4th holiday or the emergence of a concerning trend.”
Timeliness:
The Kronos U.S. Workforce Activity Report provides near real-time insights into workplace activity for the immediate preceding week. The report is currently analyzed and released weekly and inclusive of data through July 12, 2020. Visit www.kronos.com/USWorkforceActivity to view the complete report archive.
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