Following the release of the Employment Situation Report for September 2020 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI) has been revised to a level of 82.93, down by -0.36% from its revised level one month earlier and reflecting a higher proportion – relative to the prior month – of U.S. production and non-supervisory (P&NS) jobs paying less than the mean weekly income of all P&NS jobs (“Low Quality Jobs”), relative to those jobs paying above such mean. The JQI remains heavily impacted by the continued unprecedented loss of over 9 million private sector production and non-supervisory jobs since the beginning of the U.S. impact of the COVID19 global pandemic (net of additions in May through September), with regard to which the following additional special factors should be noted:
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- the BLS Employment Situation Report for September, while reflecting further deceleration in the restoration of private sector payrolls seen from May through August, evidences the re-employment of millions of workers in Low Quality jobs who were laid off during the peak crisis months – this will continue, if sustained, to drive the JQI back to its prior lower levels;
- indications, evidenced in our updated survey, with data through September 27, 2020, in cooperation with RIWI Corp., are that workers “re-payrolled,” via the Payroll Protection Program (PPP) established pursuant to the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act), are again being laid off as nearly all PPP funds have been disbursed by employers, leaving in doubt the capacity of many small and medium sized firms to maintain payrolls at levels reflected in the September BLS report. Large employers have also recently announced substantial layoffs;
- the private sector payroll gains, as reflected in JQ-Instant™ reading, below, were concentrated in sectors offering Low Quality Jobs, following the elimination of millions of such jobs during the lockdown months and their continued, although slowing, restoration; and
- the JQI may rise or fall for a period of time to the extent that such large numbers of Low Quality Jobs have been substantially eliminated or restored (temporarily or otherwise), as offset by the significantly higher benchmark mean weekly income used in computing the index and resulting from the elimination of large numbers of Low Quality Jobs.
The mean weekly wage income of all P&NS jobs as of the current reading (which reflects the level as of August 2020) increased to $839.89, a change of 0.72% from its revised level the month prior. This reflects the large number of previously-eliminated low-wage/low hours jobs added back to payrolls through July. The JQ-Instant™ preliminary read of the 877,000 gain in all private sector, non-farm payrolls for September 2020 shows that approximately 69.60% of the gains in private sector jobs were in industry sectors offering P&NS jobs with an average weekly income below the mean weekly income of all P&NS jobs (i.e. “Low Quality Jobs”). The current BLS report also evidenced the loss of 216,000 government jobs, mostly in the state and local sectors.
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