December experienced third-largest monthly decline in workforce activity since April 2020
National Overview: The UKG Workforce Activity Report for December 2022 shows the total number of shifts worked by people at U.S. businesses fell 2.9% from the prior month, the first significant decline since the omicron-fueled January 2022 reading (-5.1%) and the largest mid-December decline in at least four years.2 The monthly UKG Workforce Recovery Index additionally dropped to 92.9 — its lowest level since March 2021. Current workforce activity levels affirm that the labor market is significantly weaker at the start of 2023 than a year ago.
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Commentary: Dave Gilbertson, vice president, UKG “Executives across all industries, regions, and business-size segments are facing significant uncertainty when planning for 2023, as consumer demand begins to slow. That uncertainty played through in the labor market this month, as hourly employees were offered fewer shifts in mid-December than mid-November and workforce activity was just 92.9% of the level we saw in December 2021.”
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Industry Analysis: Retail activity fizzled during the historically busy holiday season:
- Retail, hospitality, and foodservice: -1.4%
- Healthcare: -1.5%
- Services and distribution: -3.2%
- Manufacturing: -3.6%
- Public sector: -4.1%
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Region Snapshot: Balanced declines across all regions are highest, collectively, since January 2022:
- Midwest3: -3.0%
- Northeast4: -3.0%
- Southeast5: -3.0%
- West6: -3.0%
Business Size:
- Fewer than 100 employees: -2.7%
- 101-500: -3.0%
- 501-1,000: -3.0%
- 1,001-2,500: -2.5%
- 2,501-5,000: -5.2%
- More than 5,000: -2.5%
Timeliness: The UKG Workforce Activity Report is a high-frequency index analyzing shift work trends for 4.2 million people at 35,000 U.S. businesses to understand job creation and economic momentum.
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