Today Heartland Forward published original analysis that measures the effects of COVID-19 and the economic crisis on each state’s workforce, “Insured Unemployment Rates Chart Progress in Reopening States’ Economies.” Heartland Forward’s analysis provides a first-time comprehensive look at how state-level economies are faring by tracking three metrics: total initial unemployment insurance claims, the share of claims per total employment, and the insured unemployment rate (IUR). The research shows that the Heartland has a lower IUR than the rest of the country and may experience a steadier return to normal employment sooner.
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“All eyes are on initial claims, but it is crucial to look at how many Americans are continuing to take unemployment benefits each week, and how that maps against the state’s total workforce,” says Ross DeVol, CEO & President of Heartland Forward. “In an economic crisis as serious as this, the more data the better. We hope these big-picture metrics can inform leaders as they develop smart economic recovery plans.”
While initial unemployment claims are an important indicator of immediate changes in the labor force, decreases in IUR can point to a fuller economic recovery. Consistent declines in this measure will indicate that hiring exceeds layoffs and that the economy is in recovery. Florida is the only state with declining insured unemployment rates, suggesting hiring increases.
Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Kentucky, Ohio, and Wisconsin are seeing a slowing in the rise of their IUR, suggesting a peak may be on the horizon.
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“Each state is uniquely affected by the outbreak, which is why it’s so important that we zoom in to the state-level impacts,” says Dave Shideler, Heartland Forward’s Chief Research Officer. “Layering all three of our primary metrics over the state-by-state data gives us a very detailed picture—one that we believe can contribute to recovery efforts.”