Despite Summer Heat, U.S. Shift Work Growth Nearly Frozen

National Overview: According to the U.S. Workforce Activity Report from Kronos Incorporated for Aug. 3-9, shift work volume¹ struggled to grow half a percentage point, increasing only 0.5% week-over-week. Shift volume remains below totals experienced the week ending July 19 – which was the highest volume of activity since hitting “the bottom” the week ending April 12 – while recent average weekly shift growth continues to lag behind what was experienced early in the recovery(Kronos ):

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The @KronosInc U.S. #WorkforceActivityReport shows #shiftwork grew just half a percent last week as the #jobs recovery remains plateaued for the fourth concurrent week.

• May average weekly shift growth: 2.7%
• June average weekly shift growth: 1.9%
• July average weekly shift growth: 0.7%
• Week ending Aug. 2 shift growth: 0.4%
• Week ending Aug. 9 shift growth: 0.5%

Region Snapshot: The Northeast² was the only region to experience a decline during the week ending Aug. 9, with shift volume dropping 0.8% to settle at 15.8% below pre-pandemic shift levels. The Southeast³ experienced strong weekly growth at 2.1% and now sits at 12.5% below mid-March levels, while the West⁴ increased 1% (down 10.2% overall) and the Midwest⁵ (down 10.2% overall) increased 0.7%.

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Turnover Ratio: The employee turnover ratio decreased from 2.7:1 to 2:1, but remains disproportionately skewed towards employee terminations⁶, including voluntary and involuntary turnover, versus employee hiring⁷. By comparison, during the week ending March 29 – two weeks after the national state of emergency – it reached 3.4:1, indicating 3.4 terminations for every 1 hire. When the economy was at its pre-pandemic peak in February 2020, this ratio was approximately 1:1.

Industry Analysis: As K-12 school districts begin fall semester operations, the public sector recovered another 2% and is now 23% below pre-pandemic levels. Manufacturing; retail, hospitality, and foodservice; and the services and distribution sector all remain converged at 12% below normal with no measurable week-to-week growth. Healthcare continues to hover at 8% below pre-pandemic shift volume.

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