The Conference Board Employment Trends Index Slightly Declined in January

• But Solid Job Growth Expected to Continue

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) fell in January and now stands at 117.62, down slightly from 117.94 in December 2021 (an upward revision).

“The Employment Trends Index was basically flat in January,” said Frank Steemers, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “It appears that the Omicron variant did not impact job growth as much as initially feared. Solid job growth is likely to continue over the next months.”

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Steemers added: “Employers appear to be managing these pandemic disruptions better, even as many workers called in sick or had to quarantine in January. On the other hand, employers are still trying hard to hold on to their workers in a tight labor market. Hiring and retention continues to be a challenge which we do not expect to dissipate anytime soon, especially for employers of manual labor and services. While an improving outlook for hiring and wages may attract some additional workers back to the labor market, employers may increasingly need to consider automating tasks or using different hiring strategies to help meet labor demands.”

January’s decrease in the Employment Trends Index was driven by negative contributions from three of eight components. From the largest negative contributor to the smallest, these were: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance; the Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now; and Job Openings.

The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the index increases, employment is likely to increase as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the index indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months. The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

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The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey^®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)*
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

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